Capex Hits Record High: Semiconductors Enter a New 'Arms Race' Era
In 2026, the global semiconductor industry is writing new history with real money. According to the latest industry tracking reports and financial guidance from major foundries and memory manufacturers, global semiconductor capex is expected to surpass $250 billion for the first time in 2026, a year-on-year increase of over 20%. This figure not only exceeds the previous record set in 2022 but also signals that the chip industry has completely emerged from the destocking gloom of 2023–2024, entering a 'super expansion cycle' driven by substantive demand.
Unlike previous expansions triggered by cyclical fluctuations, this capex surge exhibits significant 'structural' characteristics. Leading-edge process giants such as TSMC, Samsung, and Intel are allocating over 60% of their budgets to R&D and capacity building for 2nm and below nodes; in the memory sector, SK Hynix and Micron are focusing on expanding HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) capacity. For investors, the direction of capex is the industry's future compass, directly answering the core question of 'why invest in chips': this is no longer a simple cyclical rebound but a physical infrastructure build-out for future computing hegemony.
Three Core Logics Reshaping Chip Investment Value
Facing the massive $250 billion investment, investors need to re-examine the underlying logic of chip investment. The 2026 semiconductor market no longer fits the traditional 'inventory-demand' clock model, replaced by the following three new investment logics:
Logic 1: AI Shifts from 'Training' to 'Inference', Computing Demand Diffuses Exponentially
By 2026, AI development has fully shifted from the peak of large model training to the inference phase of application deployment. As model iterations from giants like OpenAI and Google stabilize and edge AI devices explode, demand for customized ASIC chips and on-device inference chips is surging. This has led not only to a shortage of GPUs but also to a prolonged supply crunch in supporting industries like CoWoS advanced packaging, silicon photonics, and thermal materials. The investment focus is no longer limited to computing cards but has diffused to the entire 'semiconductor infrastructure layer' supporting computing power.
Logic 2: Global 'Multi-Polar' Capacity Layout, Equipment and Materials Benefit First
Driven by geopolitical and supply chain security considerations, the US, Europe, Japan, and Southeast Asia are aggressively absorbing semiconductor capacity. Thailand, as an emerging hub for Southeast Asian semiconductor manufacturing, benefits from this capacity spillover. In 2026, with the implementation of multiple advanced packaging projects in Thailand's EEC region and BOI tax incentives for chip materials and equipment companies, Thailand's local semiconductor supply chain companies are entering a historic performance realization period. For investors eyeing Thai chip stocks, this is not only an opportunity for foundries but a golden era for 'shovel sellers'—semiconductor equipment and raw material suppliers.
Logic 3: Domestic Substitution Enters 'Deep Waters', High-End Breakthroughs Define Valuation Ceilings
In 2026, global semiconductor technology competition has reached a white-hot stage. China has dominated global capacity expansion in mature nodes, while breakthroughs in high-end lithography machines, EDA software, and advanced process foundry are accelerating. Despite external restrictions, the massive domestic market provides unprecedented trial-and-error and iteration opportunities for Chinese semiconductor equipment manufacturers. This 'domestic substitution' is no longer simple low-end replacement but is penetrating core equipment and materials, meaning the gross margins and valuation centers of related listed companies are undergoing a qualitative leap.
Thailand Perspective: Investment Dividends of a Southeast Asian Chip Hub
Specifically for the Thai market, Q2 2026 data shows a clear acceleration in capital inflows into Thailand's SET semiconductor sector. This is driven not only by the AI boom but also reflects Thailand's elevated position in specific semiconductor industry chain segments. Thailand is transforming from a mere HDD manufacturing base into an advanced packaging and automotive chip testing center.
As major global IDM manufacturers shift packaging orders to Southeast Asia, leading stocks in Thailand's PCB substrate, semiconductor packaging resin, and test socket segments all achieved double-digit revenue growth in H1 2026. For investors seeking high dividends and steady growth, the 'hidden champions' in Thailand's semiconductor supply chain are demonstrating strong defensiveness and growth potential. While market discussions about whether the Fed will raise rates in 2026 continue to disturb global growth stock valuations, the semiconductor industry's strong cash flow and capex plans provide solid earnings support for related stocks.
Risks and Opportunities: Beware of Divergence, Focus on Leaders
Of course, the massive $250 billion capex also harbors risks. Historical experience shows that excessive industry optimism often leads to overcapacity at some future point. In H2 2026, investors need to be wary of potential price softening in mature node chips and construction delays due to power supply constraints, especially for AI data centers.
However, from a long-term perspective, chips, as the 'water, electricity, and gas' of the digital economy, hold an unshakable strategic position. Chip investment in 2026 is no longer about chasing short-term inventory cycle fluctuations but betting on a fundamental revolution in human productivity tools. Whether choosing high-performance computing leaders in the US stock market or emerging semiconductor supply chain players on Thailand's SET, adhering to a 'hard tech' and 'high barrier' investment strategy will be the best path through this capex wave.
