Trump-era shift on Iran policy prompts CFTC probe into unusual oil trades

The top U.S. derivatives regulator is investigating a series of oil futures trades that were timed with unusual precision before Trump's recent shift in war policy on Iran, according to people familiar with the matter.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is leading the probe into oil futures trading on CME and Intercontinental Exchange platforms, the people said. Both exchanges have been asked to provide data.

The CFTC is investigating at least two instances over roughly two weeks in which trading volume suddenly surged before major policy announcements, the people said. The data requested from the exchanges includes the “Tag 50” operator ID, which identifies the entity behind the trades.

Exceptionally large volumes in recent weeks have raised concerns about possible misuse of major nonpublic information. At the start of the conflict, a historic disruption to oil transport in the Middle East sent prices surging. In the following weeks, oil prices swung sharply as the market speculated about when tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz might resume.

Two Democratic senators have urged the CFTC to investigate possible wrongdoing, increasing scrutiny of these unusually well-timed trades. Last month, the White House issued an internal memo warning staff not to trade in financial markets or on betting platforms using sensitive information.