Thai Investment View: MWC Shanghai on 6G "How to Do It" and Cost Reduction from Large-Scale Satellite Constellations
Recently, MWC Shanghai 2026 officially opened as scheduled. Unlike last year's enthusiastic atmosphere, when 5G-A commercial orders were being signed densely, this year's exhibition felt more cautious and pragmatic, with the industry more focused on figuring out when technology can turn into real money.
In 6G, three paths—integrated sensing and communication, AI-native, and space-air-ground integration—have reached consensus, and chipmakers have even started early R&D stockpiling; in satellite internet, the "land-grab war" for orbit and spectrum is basically over, and large-scale constellation deployment and cost reduction have become the new theme.
But the consensus stops at the technical level: terminal makers and investors are largely sitting still. On the terminal side, they are waiting for killer apps; on the investment side, they can't calculate the payback period. Even profitable international satellite players are struggling with the early cultivation of the civilian market.
As the financial bill for 5G investment has not yet been fully settled, 6G and satellite internet are collectively entering a transition phase where the vision is clear but monetization is hard. The technical route is getting narrower and narrower, while the commercial path is looking broader and broader. Under real-world investment return constraints, the industry needs answers more practical than grand narratives.
6G tech routes converge: system validation becomes the key stage
Walking into the 6G ecosystem exhibition area in Hall N3 of MWC Shanghai, five sections—the Beijing 6G Laboratory main area, communication enhancement, integrated sensing and communication, communication-computing-intelligence integration, and space-air-ground integration—break down the core 6G vision more clearly. On-site staff said this is the first time in MWC Shanghai history that 6G has been given its own hall, signaling that 6G has moved from concept discussion into a critical stage of system validation.
Technicians in the Beijing 6G Laboratory area said: if last year everyone was still debating what 6G should do, this year the debate has shifted to how to do it and what trade-offs to make. The three main enhancement routes—integrated sensing and communication, AI-native, and space-air-ground integration—have basically formed industry consensus, and key technologies like terahertz communication and intelligent metasurfaces are now in prototype validation.
The upstream industry chain is accelerating deployment. At this exhibition, Qualcomm showed an end-to-end 6G prototype system; GalaxySpace publicly displayed its self-developed second-generation direct-to-phone phased-array antenna for the first time in the 6G ecosystem area; vivo showcased a 6G pre-research prototype and technical route. Vivo's display focused more on end-to-end systems and application deployment: the complete 6G test system it showed covered the full chain, including MR terminals, 6G terminal prototypes (UE), 6G base stations (RAN), and the core network.
A representative from a domestic chipmaker said on site that the company's internal 6G R&D team is twice as large as last year's, and the logic is clear: if you wait until the standard is frozen to start, it's too late—you have to build the technical reserve in advance.
But terminal makers are more cautious. When Blue Whale Tech asked several phone brands about 6G terminal plans, most replied that they were "closely monitoring," and there were few consumer-product demos for 6G on the exhibition floor. A 6G pre-research director from one of the world's top five handset makers said informally that it's still hard to provide a clear commercial roadmap for 6G phones. The core issue is not technical capability, but that the path from terminal-side user demand to application scenarios is still being assessed. He also said the dividends from the 5G experience have not yet been fully released, and imagined scenarios such as immersive holography and multisensory experiences for 6G are still some distance away from mass consumer markets.
Investment remains cautious: 5G return digestion plus 6G spending and exit uncertainty
Investors are also cautious. During the exhibition, a TMT-focused early-stage investor said that after seeing multiple 6G demos, the technical direction was impressive, but from an investment perspective, the capital returns from 5G are still being digested; 6G R&D and network-deployment spending will be huge, and exit timing and return expectations lack enough data support. He said the current phase is more about tracking and observing, and that the timing to act must wait for clearer business signals.
The "future constellation" moves into large-scale deployment and cost reduction: orbital pattern basically set, profitability path still unproven
Unlike the 6G area, which focused on validating key technologies, the first-ever "Future Constellation" satellite-industry zone showed another rhythm: the orbital pattern is taking shape, and participants are entering a stage of fine-grained work on resources and costs.
Operators of domestic low-orbit broadband and narrowband constellations such as Spacety, Geespace, and Yunyao Satellite, along with international players like Iridium, built large exhibition booths. Spacety displayed real low-orbit satellite-internet terminal devices for scenarios such as ocean-going ships and desert mines; Geespace promoted Tianqi constellation use cases in the IoT field; and a Yunyao Satellite engineer connected live and played a video-call test powered by the Qianfan constellation.
On site, a Geespace representative said the contest for satellite-orbit and spectrum resources is basically over, and the key now is large-scale deployment and cost control. The company said the batch production cost of its narrowband communication payloads keeps falling, but it also noted that satellite internet service users have not yet reached breakeven, so at least for the next few years government and industry orders remain the basic revenue pillar.
During the process of forming a profitability model, terminal costs are worth watching. At booths of antenna and module makers, reporters discussed satellite communication terminal material costs; most interviewees said costs are falling quickly and already have the capability to be integrated into mainstream handset designs, though few disclosed exact numbers.
An Iridium business manager said Iridium already has positive cash flow thanks to narrowband voice and low-speed data services, but its traditional market is approaching saturation. Future growth needs to expand into IoT and emergency communications. Domestic low-orbit broadband constellations are still in a scale-first catch-up phase, and achieving performance and breakeven will take time and user accumulation.
