Memory Chip Prices Bottom Out and Rebound, AI Data Center Demand Becomes Biggest Driver
After two quarters of price downturn, the global memory chip market finally turned around in late July 2026. According to the latest data from TrendForce, as of July 29, the average contract price of mainstream NAND Flash rose 8% month-on-month, and DRAM rose 5% month-on-month, exceeding market expectations. The rebound in memory chip prices is mainly driven by strong AI data center demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and the start of inventory replenishment in servers and PCs.
Supply-Demand Balance: Inventory Depletion Nearly Complete, AI Drives New Growth
Looking back at the first half of 2026, the memory chip market fell into oversupply. With weak demand from smartphones and traditional PCs, NAND Flash and DRAM inventories climbed to historical highs, and prices fell for five consecutive months. However, as the global AI boom spreads to infrastructure, demand for HBM and enterprise SSDs in data centers has surged. Major players like Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron shifted production capacity to HBM, tightening supply of general-purpose memory.
On the other hand, the consumer electronics market also showed positive signs. According to IDC, global PC shipments grew 2.8% year-on-year in Q2 2026, with AI PC penetration reaching 40%, driving larger procurement of higher-capacity DDR5 memory. Meanwhile, smartphone makers began stocking up on memory chips ahead of new product launches in the second half. Overall, the supply-demand balance is tilting toward supply, pushing prices up from the bottom.
Price Trends: NAND Leads, DRAM Follows
By segment, NAND Flash rebounded more sharply. The contract price of 512Gb TLC wafers rose from $2.2 to $2.4 per unit at end-June, up about 9%. Samsung, Kioxia, and Western Digital have all announced production cuts in Q3 to consolidate the uptrend. For DRAM, DDR5 16Gb chip prices recovered to $5.1, up 5% month-on-month, while DDR4 prices stabilized. Analysts note that with DDR5 penetration exceeding 60%, its demand elasticity is higher, and further gains may be expected.
Industry Impact: Thailand Stock Market-Related Stocks Worth Attention
The memory chip price rebound benefits the entire semiconductor supply chain, including the Thai market. While the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) has no direct memory chip producers, semiconductor supporting companies such as electronic component distributors, packaging and testing service providers, and memory module firms will benefit from inventory replenishment and increased equipment procurement. For example, leading Thai electronic component distributor SVI (Siam VIP) and module maker KCE (KCE Electronics) may receive more packaging and testing orders from memory manufacturers. Investors can monitor revenue improvement signs in their H2 financial reports.
Investment Outlook: Early Cycle Upswing, Timing to Position
From the semiconductor cycle pattern, memory chips are typically leading indicators. This price uptrend started in early Q3 2026, and historically the upcycle can last 4-6 quarters. Many brokerages point out that robust AI data center demand for HBM will continue through 2026-2027, with the HBM market expected to exceed $30 billion by 2027, doubling from 2025. Emerging scenarios like quantum computing and edge AI will also drive demand for new memory types.
For investors, we are in the early stage of the memory chip upcycle. It is recommended to focus on three categories: first, global memory leaders like Samsung Electronics and SK hynix; second, HBM and high-capacity SSD suppliers needed for AI training and inference; third, semiconductor equipment and materials firms benefiting from memory capacity expansion, such as equipment agents and quartz component makers in Thailand. However, caution is needed on whether price hikes can smoothly pass through to downstream and the impact of geopolitical risks on supply chains.
Conclusion
The memory chip price rebound in July 2026 is not accidental but the result of supply-demand rebalancing and AI demand resonance. As data center construction heats up, the memory market is expected to enter a new boom cycle. For those deep in semiconductor investment, seizing this memory cycle turning point may be the key to capturing the next wave of excess returns.
